Expert judgment elicitation is often required in probabilistic decision making and the evaluation of risk. One measure of the quality of probability distributions given by experts is calibration-the ...

In the last installment we discussed combinations and how they may be used to calculate probabilities in Pineapple Open Face Chinese (POFC). Most notably these probabilities are useful when making ...

We investigate the performance of empirical criteria for comparing and selecting quantitative models from among a candidate set. A simulation based on empirically observed parameter values is used to ...